A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
