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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several pertain to security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no consensus on it yet,” Zelenskyy said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he concluded.