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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple formula. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or just the most shocking surprise.

However the current field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending collectively. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling year, he's competing with several other exceptional coaches.

Here is how the projected vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has worked. This is uncommon for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. Yet the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the off-field stuff, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still